four consecutive years of losing 90+ games, and a seemingly
endless amount of time since the Cincinnati Reds ever played a game with any
sort of relevance
https://www.crfanshop.com/jesse-winker-jersey,
it seems somewhat of a fool’s errand to attempt to pen a season review piece
about what went right this season. On the whole, of course, things haven’t been
right, weren’t right this year, and don’t appear to be - on paper - fixed enough
to project much pending right for next year.First, we looked at the things that
actually went well for the Reds, of which there were actually a surprisingly
decent few.Next up, we examined the aspects of the team that didn’t exactly
exceed expectations, but were solid enough parts to at least consider them as
OK.Today, we get to the fun stuff. The juicy stuff. The back-breaking,
mind-numbing, standings-crushing aspects of the 2018 Reds that were the fuel
behind their 67-95 fire and, almost as importantly, behind the malaise many of
us currently have with the rebuild’s pace. Gahhh.One-run games - or, rather,
losing by one-run all the dang time.Way, way back in the year 2005, when YouTube
was still in its infancy, Twitter had yet to exist, and Facebook was still going
by “The Facebook,” The Hardball Times was already diving into interesting,
provocative pieces about the game of baseball as we knew it - and as we hoped to
know it. It was in that year that former HT editor Dave Studeman dove into some
of the statistics behind team results in one-run games, noting that regardless
of overall team record, teams records’ in one-run games feature a winning %
much, much closer to .500 than in any other outcome.That’s a long-winded way of
saying that despite the true talent of teams, and despite how good they are
overall in a 162 game season, one-run games - at least by win/loss % - are
largely a toss-up. That puts this nugget of information from former Red Reporter
fearless leader Joel Luckhaupt a bit more into context:Since 1900, worst record
in one-run games1935 Braves 7-311937 Browns 10-311999 Royals 11-321916 A's
11-321936 Phillies 12-342018 Reds 10-28— Joel Luckhaupt September 28, 2018Of
course, that tweet came on September 28th, and the Reds still found a way to
lose another one-run game before the end of the season, meaning they clocked in
with a brutal, abysmal 10-29 record in their 39 games decided by a lone run this
year. I can’t even...Gahhhhh.The thing is, it’s often cited that the ability to
manufacture runs the old way, meaning with steals and bunts and moving runners
over, is one reason why teams succeed in tight contests. Well, given Jim
Riggleman’s proclivity for bunting, the stolen base prowess of both Billy
Hamilton and Jose Peraza, and the team’s 19.1% K-rate being only the 19th
highest in all of baseball, you’d think that wouldn’t be a problem on the
offensive side of the ball in these contests. Pair that with revamped back of
the bullpen - also a reasonable surface indicator of teams that win close games
- and you’d think, if anything
https://www.crfanshop.com/jesse-winker-jersey,
one-run games might’ve actually been a place where the Reds excelled.Nope.
Gahhhh.Heck, they even hit .254 with men in scoring position, which was the 11th
best mark in baseball, ahead of the New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee
Brewers, and Los Angeles Dodgers, among many others.For whatever reason, they
were abysmal in these type games, the worst in all MLB, and it brutalized their
overall record. If they went, say, 20-19 in those games - hell, the San Diego
Padres went 22-21 in one-run games - that turns their 67-95 season record into a
77-85 record, and while that still sucks an egg, it’s at least a somewhat
shinier egg.This is the part where we mention injuries happen, and are no excuse
for losing.OK, this here’s a caveat, and one that I mentioned up top in the
intro. The injuries the Reds faced this year were brutal, of course, but those
simply cannot be fall-back reasons for the abysmal record in the standings. That
said, I’m including them here because they’re a big, big reason behind the
end-of-season malaise I think many of us faced, and that’s why I’ll mention it
here.Y’see, even in awful years, late August and the month of September at least
usually give rebuilding teams a chance to bring up their talented youngsters -
the future of the organization - and give the fans a different perspective when
they show up at games. Sure, they might lose again, but at least we’ll get to
watch those guys who are supposed to dig this team out of the cellar in the
future! LET’S GOOOOOOO!Nope. Not so much this year.Jesse Winker’s rookie season
was cut short by a freak shoulder jam, meaning the .400+ OBP and emerging power
we saw from him that helped catapult the offense into relevance mid-year was
long gone by September. Nick Senzel, a consensus Top 5 prospect in the game and
presumptive mid-year call-up candidate, found out he’s no Stretch Armstrong when
bending his finger twelve awkward ways on a slide, and was done for the season
before ever getting a chance to be called up. Even Lucas Sims - the most
promising piece of the Adam Duvall trade to Atlanta - had his shoulder flame out
before he could ever start a game in September, meaning we’ll go into this
offseason without knowing whether he might be one of the few young pitchers who
can help this rotation going forward (more on that below
Cincinnati Reds T-shirts, of
course).Scott Schebler faced multiple DL stints. Eugenio Suarez was shelved
early. Michael Lorenzen and David Hernandez missed a month, which preceded the
signing of Yovani Gallardo. Gahhhh. Even the indestructible Joey Votto landed on
the DL for a time, ending a run of Cincinnati Reds seasons that were admittedly
awful but buoyed by his record-breaking talent sending out statistical anomalies
in the latter months that made you tune in anyway.Rebuilding seasons are often
designed to show the future’s promise while ignoring winning, and while certain
young players gave glimpses of that for the Reds in 2018 - here’s looking at
you, Jose Peraza - injuries sapped even that from us this year, which was just
awful.OK, fine. Here’s the part about the starting pitching.Unlike the last few
seasons - here I go, trying to spin optimism into this - the Cincinnati Reds
starting pitching wasn’t the absolute worst in all of baseball. Heck, the unit
even cobbled together 4.4 positive fWAR in 2018!That said, they still posted a
collective 5.02 ERA from their starters, which was good for the 6th worst mark
in the game.Their 1.62 HR/9 mark was ‘bested’ by only the abysmal Baltimore
Orioles staff, albeit barely (1.72).Their 4.88 FIP ranked as the 4th worst mark
across all MLB teams.Gahhhhh.If you dig into the individual numbers, you’ll also
see some troubling aspects. 140 MLB pitchers threw at least 100 innings in the
2018 season, and if you sort those 140 by ERA from worst to best, you’ll find
several familiar names on that ‘leader’ board. Homer Bailey’s 6.09 ERA ranked as
the third worst, somehow. Sal Romano’s 5.31 effort ranked 11th. Tyler Mahle’s
4.98 was 19th, Anthony DeSclafani’s 4.93 was 22nd, and that’s how you end up
with a starting rotation that you can barely depend upon to get into the 5th
inning of most games, let alone through it. And, if you sort it by FIP just to
get a slightly different potential explanation for why those four allowed so
many earned runs, you still find each of them ranked among the 21 worst pitchers
in that category, which is equally disconcerting.Look, the fact that Robert
Stephenson was too bad to even factor into this may or may not be a positive.
The same can be said for Brandon Finnegan, in what was another lost year for
him. The Matt Harvey experiment was reasonably not awful, but if he leaves in
free agency, that just further dents a group that already drove like it’d sat
out in a hail storm.They weren’t last, no. They weren’t good, though, for the
fifth consecutive season, and we’re reaching the point of the rebuild where one
of the key pieces that was acquired to begin the rebuild - Anthony DeSclafani -
is already set for his second trip through arbitration this winter. Better, yes,
but still with miles to go before being anything other than the weakest link on
the team.Gahhhhh.
The Wall